Euro Falls as Double-Dip Recession Confirmed


Euro Falls as Double-Dip Recession Confirmed

APRIL 30, 2021

The U.S. dollar looks to finish the month strong, paring losses from what has been a rough month for the greenback. 


After a clear “risk-on” day yesterday following a dovish Fed and strong economic data, the mood is more sullen this morning.  Global equities are lower across the board, perhaps as traders take profits to close the month.  The S&P closed at a record high yesterday.

There is more data due out today that should confirm the U.S. economy is on a strong trajectory.  Personal income Is expected to register an eye-popping 20.0% in March, the result of stimulus checks reaching American households.  U.S. spending is expected to have risen over 4% in March.  This jives with Amazon’s blowout revenue figures that were reported after the bell yesterday afternoon.

Later, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report will come out at 10 a.m.

What to Watch Today…

  • Personal Income and Spending at 8:30 a.m.

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The Euro was the main beneficiary of the Federal Reserve’s dovishness yesterday.  EUR/USD initially shot higher and was able to hold those gains overnight.  The pair briefly touched its highest level since the end of February.  The common currency found added support following decent German jobs data.  However, it appears American developments are more likely to drive EUR/USD movements throughout the day.


The Canadian dollar was on the offensive yesterday evening and throughout the night.  The loonie touched its strongest level since February of 2018 as the price of oil rose and commodities continued to rally.  Overall, the Canadian dollar has been on a long march stronger against the U.S. dollar for over a year.  After reaching lows during the start of the pandemic, the loonie has railed 15% over the past 13 months.

The recent push stronger has come as the Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to start removing fiscal stimulus in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.