Strong Data Not Enough to Spark Volatility Ahead of Thanksgiving


Strong Data Not Enough to Spark Volatility Ahead of Thanksgiving

NOVEMBER 27, 2019

Tempus would like to extend a warm Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family. All markets will be closed tomorrow.


The U.S. dollar is marginally higher this morning. The Bloomberg Dollar Index is set for its seventh consecutive day of gains and may extend those gains after the economic docket impressed. The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in the third quarter, beating initial estimates of 1.9%.  Personal consumption also ticked higher to 2.9%, beating estimates of 2.8%.  A separate report showed that orders for durable goods rose, adding to the dollar’s strength.  Bookings for commercial equipment excluding aircraft (a proxy for business investment) rose 1.2%, following two straight declines.  The headline Durable Goods Order print showed a 0.6% advance, besting dire estimates for a 0.9% contraction.

There is a slew of other economic data slated for release this morning including personal income and spending and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Deflator.  Pending home sales will cross the wire at 10 a.m.

What to Watch Today…

  • PCE Deflator, personal income, and spending

Complete Economic Calendar can be found here.


EUR/USD appears to have flatlined.  Volatility in the pair was already low but the pending Thanksgiving holiday appears to be adding to the tryptophan-induced sleepiness.  The Euro was 0.1% weaker overnight and has only moved an additional 0.05% after the strong U.S. data.


The pound remains near the lows of recent ranges.  The sterling has been under pressure this week after several polls showed the Conservative party’s lead closing.  YouGov will release details of their new poll later today.  The equivalent poll in 2017 correctly predicted that Theresa May would lose her majority when other surveys showed her well ahead, according to Bloomberg.